Our data shows that in 2011, the global demand for lithium-ion isolation membranes was approximately 400 million square meters, and the production value was approximately US$1.2 billion.
Our experience shows that the global market demand for lithium-ion isolation films has remained at a growth rate of around 10% over the years. With the launch of the electric vehicle market in the future, the demand for lithium-ion isolation films will be greatly increased. We forecast that in 2013, the market demand for lithium-ion separators will reach 560 million square meters, with an output value of approximately US$1.7 billion.
At present, 80% of domestic lithium-ion isolation membranes rely on imports, and import substitution space is large. As lithium-ion isolating membrane is still the highest link in the lithium-ion industry chain technology, Asahi Kasei Corporation, Dongfang Chemical and Celgard Corporation of the United States are the three monopoly giants in the lithium-ion isolation film market, accounting for about 20% of the global market share.
At present, there are mainly large-scale isolation membrane production lines for Star Source Materials, Jinhui Hi-tech and Xinxiang Greian. The products are mostly used for low-end lithium-ion batteries. High-end insulation membranes and power battery separators are almost all imported.
With the acceleration of localization of lithium-ion barrier films, we are optimistic about import substitution. As lithium battery insulation production line assumption period and product evaluation cycle are relatively long, it usually takes several years. We believe that companies that have already achieved mass production gain more in the import substitution process of lithium-ion barrier films.
In the lithium industry, the prospect of unlimited ice-breaking prices continues to decline, and lithium-ion batteries are gradually replacing lead-acid and nickel-metal hydride batteries with poor performance. The alternative process has now been carried out in the field of electric bicycle batteries and UPS batteries, and the demand for lithium batteries in these two fields has grown rapidly. The domestic electric vehicle lithium battery market is likely to break ice in 2013.
The large number of batteries needed for energy storage power stations is more sensitive to the price of batteries, and the premise of market start-up is a more substantial decline in the price of lithium batteries.
Demand for consumer electronics lithium batteries has grown steadily; demand for power batteries has grown rapidly. Smartphone battery demand is expected to grow by about 50% this year. Demand for lithium battery in the tablet PC market will increase by more than 230% this year, and will continue to grow rapidly next year. The penetration rate of lithium batteries in the power tool battery market will reach 69% this year, with a growth rate of about 8%. The lead-acid industry rectification will bring an alternative opportunity for the replacement of lithium batteries in the electric bicycle battery market and will see rapid growth. With the expansion of the scale of production and sales, the price of electric vehicles will be greatly reduced, and the demand for electric vehicles will increase. The share of lithium in the grid energy storage market has risen rapidly. This year's penetration rate will increase from 13% to 30%.
The market pattern of lithium ion battery key materials has changed. The market demand for lithium cobaltate was reversed and the ternary material came from behind. Natural graphite has once again become the mainstream anode material, and artificial graphite has been extruded.
Localization of barrier films is accelerating and it is optimistic about import substitution. Lithium hexafluorophosphate electrolyte solute made a breakthrough domestic production.
Lithium carbonate production capacity expanded rapidly, oversupply and profitability declined slightly. Lithium reserves are abundant and concentrated. After the large-scale start-up of the electric vehicle market, the demand for lithium resources will increase exponentially, and companies that control lithium resources will benefit.
Investment Strategy: It is recommended that investment be benefited from import substitution and structural changes within the industry, as well as high-growth electric vehicle and power battery quality companies. It is recommended to pay attention to listed companies such as Xinwangda, Yiwei Lithium, Xinzhou State, Fosu Technology, BYD, Wanxiang Qianchao, Desai Battery.
Stock price catalyst: "Lead-acid battery industry access conditions" announced; "energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry development plan" announced; major breakthrough in battery technology or significant price changes.
Risk Warning: The risk that the expansion of production capacity will lead to a decline in profitability; the risk of declining industry valuation levels; the risk of the electric vehicle industry developing less than expected. The risk of major changes in industry policies.
Lithium battery sector in-depth report Three major emerging industries support the rapid growth of the lithium resource industry chain. From the lithium industry development trend, new materials, biomedicine and new energy will be the fastest growing demand for lithium resources. It is estimated that the compound annual growth rate of lithium resource demand in the next five years will be 10~12%, 12~15%, and 20~25%, respectively. The new materials industry mainly focuses on lithium-containing light new materials, rare earth metallurgy, ceramic materials, petrochemicals, fine chemicals and other fields; the biopharmaceutical industry focuses mainly on antiviral drugs, statins and lipid-lowering drugs, etc.; the new energy industry focuses In the lithium battery, new energy vehicles and other fields.
The point of view of the upstream lithium carbonate industry is the cost of lithium extraction from the brine and lithium extraction from the ore. From the upstream lithium carbonate product pattern, industrial-grade lithium carbonate is a basic lithium product. The production cost of brine is lower than that of ore production. The overall supply and demand form is slightly larger than demand; the battery-grade lithium carbonate product is a deep-processed lithium product, and the cost of production of brine and ore The production costs are quite the same, the overall supply and demand pattern is slightly smaller than the demand; the proportion of the industry in the two future technology routes depends on the cost control level of the two technical routes.
The downstream market will start gradually. Judging from the development trend of the industry, the driving factors of the lithium battery market are mainly constrained by factors such as technology, cost, and policies. The technical factors are mainly reflected in the consistency of lithium battery production and power management, and the cost factors are mainly compared with lead-acid. The price competitiveness of the battery, the policy is mainly reflected in the government's efforts to support the lithium industry, especially the implementation of subsidies. Taking into account the impact of the three dimensions, the lithium battery market will start gradually.
Technology maturity determines investment timing. Judging from the current technology maturity of the lithium battery industry, the order of the technology maturity is graphene negative electrode material <separator <lithium hexafluorophosphate electrolyte salt <cathode material <electrolyte <anode material. In the current new energy vehicle market has not yet really started, when the demand for power batteries has not yet really increased, investment in the diaphragm and lithium hexafluorophosphate can take into account the investment income and safety margins, the future to see two lines, one is the line of technological progress, graphene technology breakthroughs, After the application prospects become clearer, graphene stocks can be oversold, and the other line is the market demand line. With the new energy automobile market starting to drastically stimulate the market demand, it can increase the investment quota for leading companies in electrolytes and positive and negative materials. .
Lithium industry investment can follow three logical lines. Judging from current industry maturity and technological development trends related to lithium resources, we believe that investment in the lithium battery industry chain can refer to the three main lines. First, attention should be paid to the deep processing of lithium products that currently have relatively strong profitability and relatively high growth. For example, new materials such as metallic lithium, butyl lithium, and catalyst grade lithium chloride and bio-pharmaceuticals, it is recommended to pay attention to the Nisshin Lithium industry; Second, the technical bottlenecks in the lithium battery industry chain, such as diaphragm and lithium hexafluorophosphate, are currently in the process Progress, domestic substitution accelerated, investment value is greater; Third, if lithium battery starts beyond expectations, then Shanshangufen, China Baoan and other cathode and anode materials and electrolytes and other leading companies in the field and the industry chain Tianqi Lithium carbonate, Lifan Lithium and other lithium carbonate leading companies will benefit substantially.
Our experience shows that the global market demand for lithium-ion isolation films has remained at a growth rate of around 10% over the years. With the launch of the electric vehicle market in the future, the demand for lithium-ion isolation films will be greatly increased. We forecast that in 2013, the market demand for lithium-ion separators will reach 560 million square meters, with an output value of approximately US$1.7 billion.
At present, 80% of domestic lithium-ion isolation membranes rely on imports, and import substitution space is large. As lithium-ion isolating membrane is still the highest link in the lithium-ion industry chain technology, Asahi Kasei Corporation, Dongfang Chemical and Celgard Corporation of the United States are the three monopoly giants in the lithium-ion isolation film market, accounting for about 20% of the global market share.
At present, there are mainly large-scale isolation membrane production lines for Star Source Materials, Jinhui Hi-tech and Xinxiang Greian. The products are mostly used for low-end lithium-ion batteries. High-end insulation membranes and power battery separators are almost all imported.
With the acceleration of localization of lithium-ion barrier films, we are optimistic about import substitution. As lithium battery insulation production line assumption period and product evaluation cycle are relatively long, it usually takes several years. We believe that companies that have already achieved mass production gain more in the import substitution process of lithium-ion barrier films.
In the lithium industry, the prospect of unlimited ice-breaking prices continues to decline, and lithium-ion batteries are gradually replacing lead-acid and nickel-metal hydride batteries with poor performance. The alternative process has now been carried out in the field of electric bicycle batteries and UPS batteries, and the demand for lithium batteries in these two fields has grown rapidly. The domestic electric vehicle lithium battery market is likely to break ice in 2013.
The large number of batteries needed for energy storage power stations is more sensitive to the price of batteries, and the premise of market start-up is a more substantial decline in the price of lithium batteries.
Demand for consumer electronics lithium batteries has grown steadily; demand for power batteries has grown rapidly. Smartphone battery demand is expected to grow by about 50% this year. Demand for lithium battery in the tablet PC market will increase by more than 230% this year, and will continue to grow rapidly next year. The penetration rate of lithium batteries in the power tool battery market will reach 69% this year, with a growth rate of about 8%. The lead-acid industry rectification will bring an alternative opportunity for the replacement of lithium batteries in the electric bicycle battery market and will see rapid growth. With the expansion of the scale of production and sales, the price of electric vehicles will be greatly reduced, and the demand for electric vehicles will increase. The share of lithium in the grid energy storage market has risen rapidly. This year's penetration rate will increase from 13% to 30%.
The market pattern of lithium ion battery key materials has changed. The market demand for lithium cobaltate was reversed and the ternary material came from behind. Natural graphite has once again become the mainstream anode material, and artificial graphite has been extruded.
Localization of barrier films is accelerating and it is optimistic about import substitution. Lithium hexafluorophosphate electrolyte solute made a breakthrough domestic production.
Lithium carbonate production capacity expanded rapidly, oversupply and profitability declined slightly. Lithium reserves are abundant and concentrated. After the large-scale start-up of the electric vehicle market, the demand for lithium resources will increase exponentially, and companies that control lithium resources will benefit.
Investment Strategy: It is recommended that investment be benefited from import substitution and structural changes within the industry, as well as high-growth electric vehicle and power battery quality companies. It is recommended to pay attention to listed companies such as Xinwangda, Yiwei Lithium, Xinzhou State, Fosu Technology, BYD, Wanxiang Qianchao, Desai Battery.
Stock price catalyst: "Lead-acid battery industry access conditions" announced; "energy-saving and new energy vehicle industry development plan" announced; major breakthrough in battery technology or significant price changes.
Risk Warning: The risk that the expansion of production capacity will lead to a decline in profitability; the risk of declining industry valuation levels; the risk of the electric vehicle industry developing less than expected. The risk of major changes in industry policies.
Lithium battery sector in-depth report Three major emerging industries support the rapid growth of the lithium resource industry chain. From the lithium industry development trend, new materials, biomedicine and new energy will be the fastest growing demand for lithium resources. It is estimated that the compound annual growth rate of lithium resource demand in the next five years will be 10~12%, 12~15%, and 20~25%, respectively. The new materials industry mainly focuses on lithium-containing light new materials, rare earth metallurgy, ceramic materials, petrochemicals, fine chemicals and other fields; the biopharmaceutical industry focuses mainly on antiviral drugs, statins and lipid-lowering drugs, etc.; the new energy industry focuses In the lithium battery, new energy vehicles and other fields.
The point of view of the upstream lithium carbonate industry is the cost of lithium extraction from the brine and lithium extraction from the ore. From the upstream lithium carbonate product pattern, industrial-grade lithium carbonate is a basic lithium product. The production cost of brine is lower than that of ore production. The overall supply and demand form is slightly larger than demand; the battery-grade lithium carbonate product is a deep-processed lithium product, and the cost of production of brine and ore The production costs are quite the same, the overall supply and demand pattern is slightly smaller than the demand; the proportion of the industry in the two future technology routes depends on the cost control level of the two technical routes.
The downstream market will start gradually. Judging from the development trend of the industry, the driving factors of the lithium battery market are mainly constrained by factors such as technology, cost, and policies. The technical factors are mainly reflected in the consistency of lithium battery production and power management, and the cost factors are mainly compared with lead-acid. The price competitiveness of the battery, the policy is mainly reflected in the government's efforts to support the lithium industry, especially the implementation of subsidies. Taking into account the impact of the three dimensions, the lithium battery market will start gradually.
Technology maturity determines investment timing. Judging from the current technology maturity of the lithium battery industry, the order of the technology maturity is graphene negative electrode material <separator <lithium hexafluorophosphate electrolyte salt <cathode material <electrolyte <anode material. In the current new energy vehicle market has not yet really started, when the demand for power batteries has not yet really increased, investment in the diaphragm and lithium hexafluorophosphate can take into account the investment income and safety margins, the future to see two lines, one is the line of technological progress, graphene technology breakthroughs, After the application prospects become clearer, graphene stocks can be oversold, and the other line is the market demand line. With the new energy automobile market starting to drastically stimulate the market demand, it can increase the investment quota for leading companies in electrolytes and positive and negative materials. .
Lithium industry investment can follow three logical lines. Judging from current industry maturity and technological development trends related to lithium resources, we believe that investment in the lithium battery industry chain can refer to the three main lines. First, attention should be paid to the deep processing of lithium products that currently have relatively strong profitability and relatively high growth. For example, new materials such as metallic lithium, butyl lithium, and catalyst grade lithium chloride and bio-pharmaceuticals, it is recommended to pay attention to the Nisshin Lithium industry; Second, the technical bottlenecks in the lithium battery industry chain, such as diaphragm and lithium hexafluorophosphate, are currently in the process Progress, domestic substitution accelerated, investment value is greater; Third, if lithium battery starts beyond expectations, then Shanshangufen, China Baoan and other cathode and anode materials and electrolytes and other leading companies in the field and the industry chain Tianqi Lithium carbonate, Lifan Lithium and other lithium carbonate leading companies will benefit substantially.
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