Battery prices fall in the next three years

At the end of 2011, PM2.5 officially entered the public's field of vision. This made urban residents in Beijing and other places even more disturbed by haze and weather, and it was even more hopeful to speed up the adoption of new energy vehicles.

At present, the development of new energy vehicles is still in the incubation period, and it is too early for large-scale industrialization. Energy-saving and new energy automobile industry development plans have not yet been introduced. Therefore, some enterprises have begun to hesitate. However, a reporter of the China Securities Journal, who is researched by people related to Foton Motor, stated that the direction of developing new energy vehicles is correct. Only by preparing as soon as possible can we seize market opportunities in the future. According to reports, Futian New Energy Automobile has put more than 5,000 vehicles on the market. Through hard work, the price of the battery should be reduced by half in the next three years, which will greatly reduce the cost of the vehicle.

The demonstration of electric taxi will expand China's PM2.5 mainly from coal-fired power generation, cement industry and automobile exhaust emissions, among which, the continuous increase in car ownership will exacerbate the deterioration of urban PM2.5 indicators. If all traditional cars are replaced with new energy vehicles, the consumption of gasoline and diesel will be greatly reduced, and the air quality will also be greatly improved.

On the morning of December 13, a reporter from the China Securities Journal came to the electric taxi charging station in Yanqing County, Beijing. Here, we have seen the spark of the development of new energy vehicles.

After a few simple actions such as stepping on the brakes, hanging the D gear, loosening the handbrake, and stepping on the accelerator, an electric taxi can start quickly. Under the command of Li Hai (a pseudonym), a driver of the Luanchuan taxi company, the China Securities Journal reporter experienced the feeling of driving a pure electric vehicle. Compared with conventional fuel vehicles, not only is the operation simple, the feeling of sitting in the car does not have any abnormality except that the noise is smaller.

According to the introduction of the Taxi Taxi Company, starting in March of this year, 50 Didi Electric taxis produced by Foton Motor were put into operation in Yanqing County. Although the cruising range of the EV electric vehicle reaches 130 kilometers, although it does not meet the requirements for large-scale popularization, it is fully adaptable in such areas as Yanqing.

Li Hai said that the taxi starts at RMB 5, and the excess part charges RMB 1.5 per kilometer, which is about the same as that of the fuel taxi. In order to meet the daytime driving, electric cars need to be charged for 8 hours at night, for a total charge of 20 kWh, and the price per kWh is 7 8 points. The driver pays the management fee of 1200 yuan per month to the company, and the company returns 1160 yuan to the driver as salary. The normal monthly income of the driver is 2400-2500 yuan. The company does not plan to recoup the purchase cost of electric vehicles by collecting management fees.

Wu Shijiang, deputy director of the Yanqing County Transportation Bureau, said that the demonstration of the electric taxi in Yanqing County is to explore the operation and management experience of the electric taxi and accumulate data for the future market promotion of electric vehicles. Foton Motor has arranged for a special person to Solve various problems that may arise during the operation.

The price of electric vehicles purchased by the municipal government was more than 300,000 yuan per vehicle, and Yanqing County's subsidy for Suichuan Company was about 2 million yuan per year.

According to reports, except that Yanqing County will continue to increase the number of 100 Futian Mickey electric taxis before May 1, 2012, Beijing will continue to conduct electric taxi demonstration operations in Changping and Fangshan. Once the technology is mature in the future, the market will expand rapidly in the short term. Wu Shijiang said that according to the plan, Yanqing County will need 400-500 taxis by 2020. If the cost of electric vehicles in the future drops and the cruising range increases, the market prospect will be very broad.

The construction of charging standards should go ahead. The whole society has already reached consensus on whether or not to develop new energy vehicles. However, because the technology is still not mature enough, there are certain differences on how to develop them. For example, priority should be given to the development of hybrid power or pure electric power, and promotion of power exchange mode. Still charging mode.

For these issues, Foton Motor believes that new energy vehicle technologies are continuously developing. If they do not make new energy vehicles because of the existence of uncertainties, they will wait until the technology is mature to do it again, which will certainly miss future market opportunities. It is precisely because of the technological revolution that may occur that the Chinese auto industry is ushering in an opportunity to catch up with the world’s advanced level.

As for the technical route, hybrid power is relatively mature and the fuel-saving effect is also obvious. It is suitable for marketing before pure electric vehicles mature. However, pure electric cars are the only opportunity from the perspective of overtaking. Only in this area will it be possible for the Chinese auto industry to surpass the level of multinational corporations.

Fu Xuebin, deputy general manager of Futian Automobile and director of the Engineering Research Institute Yan Xuebin, believes that the key reason is that China’s auto industry is large and not strong. The key reason is the lack of core technologies, especially the control of the powertrain, which makes Chinese companies lag behind foreign companies for a long time and it is difficult to catch up. . In the electronic control of electric vehicles, foreign companies are just starting. China is not far from foreign companies, and it is simpler than conventional diesel locomotives.

As for the cost of the battery, Yan Xuebin is optimistic: “Fukuda's motors have fallen by at least 40% this year compared to last year. Since the start of this year, electronic control has been completely independent research and development, allowing other companies to OEM. Battery costs account for the cost of the entire vehicle. In one part, after the output comes up, it will also generate a decline of more than 10% per year, and in the next three years, the price of the battery should be reduced by half. In the next two to three years, the cost of electric vehicles will drop significantly."

In terms of operation mode, support for the changeover mode and charge mode are all consistent. Wu Shijiang believes that as long as the battery technology is not yet mature, whether it is charging or changing power, it is not suitable for large-scale promotion, and can only be operated in a small area.

Zhao Jingguang, deputy secretary of the Foton Motor Party Committee and spokesman for the press, believes that whether it is charging or changing electricity, it needs to be recharged. Therefore, although the policy has not yet established which mode should be promoted preferentially, the government can already make a difference in the construction of charging standards. If there is no mandatory standard for charging, the future of electric vehicles may repeat the old path of mobile phone chargers, resulting in more serious waste.

The overall layout of energy-saving and new energy vehicle development plans has not yet been introduced, and the focus of government subsidies is not yet clear. From a technological advancement perspective, it is also uncertain which technology route will eventually win the market. To this end, Foton Motor has been fully deployed on various technological routes and has been doing a good job.

According to Zhao Jingguang, Futian New Energy Vehicle was the first to achieve industrialization in the country, and it has hit the market with more than 5,000 vehicles so far, including more than 2,000 vehicles in Beijing. Nearly 20 cities and regions such as Jinan, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Dalian, Zhongshan, and Taiwan have already purchased bulk Futian new energy vehicles. Futian New Energy Vehicle has also entered trial operation in the United States, Britain and other countries.

Futian's new energy vehicles are divided into several series including pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, LNG, and fuel cells. Futian Ouhui Hybrid Bus is the first domestic new energy vehicle to realize commercialization, with a fuel saving rate of more than 25%. After the successful operation in Guangzhou and Beijing, the order of the new energy bus for Ouhui continued.

The Fudi pure electric taxi developed by Foton independently passed the collision and related certification tests in October 2010 and has been demonstrated and operated in Yanqing. The UMA pure electric sanitation vehicle jointly developed by Futian and Beijing Institute of Technology has been put into operation in the sanitation service center in Beijing's Xicheng District, with abundant orders. Futian Ouhui pure electric bus is based on the mature chassis of the existing high-end urban buses in Beijing oil and electricity, using high-performance lithium-ion batteries to output electrical energy. In 2010, Foton has already delivered 50 pure electric buses to Beijing as buses.

LNG vehicles do not enjoy government subsidies in China, but they are also included in the broad category of new energy vehicles in foreign countries. LNG buses produced by Foton have already moved to overseas markets. In 2011, Futian Ouhui Bus obtained the order for the first batch of 111 BJ6100 natural gas buses from the Pakistani bus company. The export laid an important position for the Foton Bus in Pakistan's public transport system.

PetroChina has already purchased bulk LNG fuel tractors produced by Futian Auman in bulk. Take CNPC Jiangsu Liquefied Natural Gas Project as an example. This project mainly receives, stores, and gasifies LNG from Qatar and other foreign countries, and needs LNG tankers to be loaded and shipped. The first batch of 150 LNG fuel tractors purchased by the project came from Futian.

In addition, Foton is also conducting research and development of fuel cell buses. The company and Tsinghua University have jointly prototyped three prototype vehicles, integrated domestically produced components, adopted hydrogen fuel cell technology, and mixed electric and electric vehicles to achieve zero emissions for the entire vehicle. The company successfully implemented safe trial operations during the Beijing Olympic Games.

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