The well-known telecommunications industry consulting company Ovum's broadband access market share statistics table for the second quarter of 2010 shows that in the quarter, the DSL global market (excluding DSL client equipment) totaled $ 848 million in revenue, while the FTTB / FTTH market (including client equipment ONUs and ONTs) revenue of 796 million US dollars. Over the past two years, even though FTTB / FTTH users and related equipment have grown steadily, DSL revenue has been slowly increasing quarterly.
Therefore, Ovum believes that the DSL equipment market will not decline rapidly. Although the growth rate of DSL users in many countries has indeed slowed down, especially in Japan and South Korea, the number of FTTH / FTTB users is surpassing DSL users, but DSL equipment will still come in handy in many hybrid fiber copper wire architectures. Ovum predicts that by 2015, DSL port shipments will still reach 63 million (from the 82 million in 2009 gradually reduced). However, most DSL ports will grow with the number of FTTx users, not with DSL.
In the transmission rate technology breakthrough news released by the manufacturer, the emphasis is on the distance of 400 to 500 meters. The hypothesis proposed here is that when providing VDSL or ADSL + services, the copper wire length limit for customers is about this long, and the remaining section is used as part of the FTTN, FTTC or FTTB architecture, using fiber to connect to the central office. At present, the main reason for not fully deploying FTTH in customer premises is economic factors, but technical and management constraints are also important factors. Therefore, Ovum believes that even if DSL network equipment is still a 2 billion US dollar market by 2015, major manufacturers will continue to rush to launch DSL innovations.
When put into commercial use, DSL solutions should be cheaper than FTTH, but the final cost difference and the timetable for adoption will depend on how these technologies are combined with DSL line cards and client devices. In addition, the evolution of DSL equipment will be a major challenge. How to combine DSL technology with MSAP / MSAN platform and DSLAMs connected by PON, and how to deploy and install DSL underground in large buildings, are problems that need to be solved.
Few people in the industry doubt that optical fiber will eventually win, because the operating cost burden of optical fiber is lower than copper wire, and the bandwidth of optical fiber is inherently much higher than copper wire. Globally, Ovum expects that the number of FTTH / FTTB subscribers will grow faster than DSL and cable TV networks by at least 2015, and the revenue of related equipment will exceed DSL in 2012. However, it may take decades for many countries to complete the full deployment of FTTH. During this period, DSL will continue to develop as part of a viable alternative to different architectures. This conclusion is particularly important for operators who are facing fierce competition in some countries, who intend to launch new services (such as IPTV) but cannot find a reasonable economic reason or cannot raise enough funds to launch FTTH.
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