The supply and demand structure of the LED industry chain has been fundamentally improved, and supply and demand are tight or will continue into 2018. Under the new supply and demand structure, LED panel investment opportunities are also increasingly prominent, and some listed companies in the LED industry chain are still waiting to be optimistic!
There are significant signs of improvement in the supply and demand structure of the LED industry. The upstream price increases frequently and the downstream performance is outstanding.
Sign 1: In 2016, the upstream price of the LED industry chain increased frequently, and some products rose more than 15%.
In March, Mulinsen, Jingtai and other packaging companies once raised the price of some products; in May, when the price of crystal power was reduced by 25%, the price rose by 15%, and Sanan Optoelectronics also had some price increases; August, Sanan, etc. The price of chip companies has increased to varying degrees. Among them, the price of small and medium-sized products of Sanan Optoelectronics has risen by 10%. Huacan Optoelectronics has also adjusted the products with lower profits. In September, Mulinsen, Guoxing Optoelectronics, Cinda Optoelectronics, etc. RGB lamp beads are being raised, and the increase is about 5%-10%.
Sign 2: In 2016, the revenue of LED lighting enterprises ushered in an inflection point, and the revenue of many enterprises increased by over 40%. Downstream LED lighting companies' revenues have improved significantly, verifying that LED lighting supply and demand patterns have ushered in a turning point and reversed the 15-year decline pattern.
From the listed companies in the first half of 2016, the revenue can be verified. The Sunshine and Foshan revenues increased by 40% year-on-year. The NVC revenue increased by more than 90% year-on-year. This is due to the low LED lighting application base in the first half of the year. The worst time has passed. In 2016, the overall demand and supply pattern of downstream LED lighting applications has already turned around.
Demand side: LED lighting penetration space is still large, small spacing ushers in the explosion.
From the demand side analysis one: LED lighting penetration rate is only 27.2%, "ban white order" catalytic LED replacement LED lighting penetration rate is only 27.2%, from October 1 "whitening" to promote LED lighting lamps to further replace white incandescent lamps.
1) Lighting is the main application market for LED downstream. WIND data is roughly 45% in China. According to DIGITIMES data, the global LED lighting market has grown significantly in recent years, from $1.75 billion in 2009 to $29.9 billion in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 60.5%. However, its penetration rate is still not high, only 27.2% in 2015 and more than 30% in 16 years. Therefore, its growth space is still huge.
Analysis from the demand side 2: The small distance between indoor and outdoor continues to be hot, and the new demand of 40 billion pieces per year in the next 2 years. The indoor and outdoor small-pitch market continues to be hot, and there will still be nearly 40 billion new demands per year in 17-18. In recent years, with the advantages of seamless splicing of small-pitch LED displays, DLP and LCD splicing display are gradually being replaced. And showing a trend of accelerating growth.
According to the domestic semi-peripheral display leader Liard's semi-annual report, its small-diameter TV has signed a new 1.1 billion yuan, an increase of 104% over the same period of last year; from January to June 2016, the revenue was confirmed to be 482 million yuan, an increase of 93 over the same period last year. %; small-pitch TV gross margin remained at 39.78%. Other listed companies such as Ai Biesen, Chau Ming Technology, Lian Jian Optoelectronics, Alto Electronics, Lehman, etc., which are involved in the LED display business, have also enjoyed satisfactory display business performance this year. This shows that the small-pitch LED display market is developing at a high speed.
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