This year is the beginning of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. Although the “12th Five-Year Plan†energy plan has not been issued yet, many signs of electric power development this year can still be used to analyze and judge the path to the “12th Five-Year†power development. Make predictions. The newspaper launches a large-scale year-end special article --- "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" begins to look at electricity, trying to interview a large number of people in the industry, from electricity demand, power reform, power supply structure, power grid development, energy-saving emission reduction, power monitoring and other 9 On the other hand, an in-depth analysis of the status quo, existing problems, and development paths will be used to draw the trajectory of the “12th Five-Year†power development for readers. stay tuned.
In the winter season, Datang International Beijing Gaojing Thermal Power Plant enters the season of "heat-setting electricity." On December 14, the computer in the main control room of the Beijing Gaojing Thermal Power Plant showed that the hot water with a water temperature of 109 degrees Celsius and a flow rate of 9,700 tons per hour was being imported into Beijing Thermal Power Network, warming 12 million square kilometers of the area, and 6 sets of power plants of 100,000 kilowatts. Cogeneration units were all started, and 430,000 kilowatts of electricity resources were integrated into the power grid to serve the economy and protect people's livelihood.
In the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the entire electric power industry and more than two million electric power people adhered to their responsibilities for a hundred years of inheritance, and they wholeheartedly met the economic and social development, and the people’s production and living needs for electricity.
In the beginning of the year, some changes in the supply and demand situation of the power industry have left a mark for judging the trend of electricity demand during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. In response to this, the supply distribution should closely follow the demand profile and set the tone.
The beginning of the year: the three major veins outline the context of supply and demand, and the overall power demand shows a steady decline.
Compared to the growth rate of electricity that exceeded 20% and sometimes fell below 10% in 2010, power consumption fell from overheating to a steady and reasonable trajectory this year. In the first three quarters, electricity consumption increased by 12.7%, 11.7%, and 11.5% respectively.
Based on the macroeconomic situation of annual GDP growth of “super nines,†it is predicted that the electricity consumption of the entire society will reach 4.7 trillion kWh this year, an increase of 12% year-on-year.
“This year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society has achieved a quarterly equilibrium and stable state, and it has steadily declined to a reasonable growth rate that is compatible with the development stage. This is the first feature that has emerged since 2007. Entering the 12th Five-Year Economic Transformation During the process, the growth of electricity demand will inevitably continue to slow down,†said Xue Jing, director of the Statistical Department of the China Telecom Union, in an interview with the reporter.
At the same time, due to factors such as industrial transfer and macro-control, the regional development characteristics of “East-West and West-Express†this year directly led to a slowdown in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the east and a quarter-to-quarter increase in electricity consumption in the west.
In context two, local power shortages persist frequently.
This year, tight supply and demand not only peaked in summer. In January, the maximum power gap in the operating area of ​​the State Grid reached 27,160,000 kilowatts. Since then, the “off-season is not thin†and the peak summer has been reached, and the war has continued throughout the year. The lack of electricity is not only in the traditional areas, but also in the coal-producing provinces such as Guizhou and Shanxi.
The peak of electricity shortage reached 30 million kilowatts in the whole year. There was a shortage of electricity, there was a catalysis of the surge in electricity consumption in high energy-consuming industries, and there was a disruption in the drop in hydropower output. However, the increase in coal prices, lack of coal and shutdown, and unbalanced matching of power grids were the shortages of electricity. deeper reason.
This year, due to soaring coal prices and restrictions on transportation channels, the production and operation of thermal power were unsustainable. In October, the coal shortage capacity of the country was as high as 16 million kilowatts.
In an interview with the reporter, Wang Xinmao, Senior Consultant of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, pointed out: “The coal and electricity price formation and transmission mechanism has caused a lot of problems. The coal and electricity situation has been deteriorating. In the near term, it is a problem of coal and electricity business losses. It is a problem of deterioration of the investment environment for coal and electricity and is a major issue for the healthy development of the power industry.†Context 3: The capacity for new power protection continues to shrink. "The newly added power guarantee capability not only includes new installed capacity, but also includes long-distance transmission of increased power supply capacity. At present, there is no support for these two aspects." Xue Jing said.
In the first 10 months of this year, China’s electric power capacity under construction was 184 million kilowatts, of which 67 million kilowatts were thermal power, which was equivalent to only two-thirds of last year. The newly started power projects totaled 31.77 million kilowatts, of which new capacity for thermal power generation was only 14 million kilowatts, a 50% decrease from the previous year.
In the case of a serious shortage of new installed capacity, the lack of matching power grid transmission capacity further exacerbated the insufficiency of guarantee capacity.
Faced with this situation, considering the power supply and power grid construction cycle, it is necessary to make such ideological preparations. In the past two years, the overall supply-demand tone of tightly-balanced and locally severe power shortages cannot be changed.
Predictive demand: overall slowdown in growth rate in different regions The Wang Deming, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that China's economy has sustained high growth for 30 years, and future growth of 8% to 9% should be the norm.
During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, as economic growth gradually slows down, power consumption will generally decline, but there will also be a small annual wave momentum due to the economic cycle. By 2015, China’s electricity consumption growth rate will be 7%. Left and right, the average annual growth rate of the '12th Five-Year' period is between 8.5% and 9%, said Xue Jing.
In the next few years, with the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the enhancement of energy conservation and emission reduction, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries will inevitably accelerate, and the extensive expansion of production capacity in high-energy-consuming and highly-polluting industries will be controlled, and the proportion of industrial electricity consumption will increase from the current 73.7. % dropped two percentage points.
At the same time, with the acceleration of the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way, the universal service of electricity will increase steadily, and the per capita electricity consumption will increase with the continuous improvement of the level of economic development and the increase in the income of residents. According to 2015, the added value of the service industry and the value-added of strategic emerging industries accounted for 47% and 8% of the GDP respectively, the potential for new electricity consumption growth is still great. Clean energy and new energy are rapidly developing, and most of them are converted into electricity to be used. The ideal space for a new round of electricity demand should be released. Of course, various constraints will become the bottleneck for the release of electricity demand.
Considering that China is in the mid-stage of industrialization, the National Energy Administration analyzed and predicted that by 2015, the entire society will use 6.27 trillion kWh of electricity.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the development characteristics of the "East-West and West-Express" region will become more apparent.
Liu Yong, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that from the point of view of industrialization maturity, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the development of the eastern industrial economy tends to be saturated, and urbanization is in the late period of rapid growth. The main battlefield of China's industry in the 12th Five-Year Plan will be the Midwest and the North.
Looking at the banks of the Huangpu River, hundreds of “Yueyi Building†(a high-rise building, five or six thousand people, with a monthly tax payment of 100 million yuan) are notes on the economic transformation and development of Shanghai. At present, Shanghai's service industry contributes 60% to economic growth.
Looking back at this year's Western Fair, modern services, high-tech, and equipment manufacturing have become the most popular investment areas, and the signal of “industry westward†has become increasingly clear.
Wang Xinmao analysis pointed out that from the perspective of regional development differences, industries with higher energy consumption will shift to the central and western regions.
However, in the second industry, the absolute value of the east is still relatively large. In terms of growth rate, the western region itself has developed rapidly, and in addition to undertaking high-energy-consuming industries, the amount of electricity used by the secondary industry will increase. However, in the next few years, this change will be gradual. Industrial transfer depends on whether conditions are met. In addition to resources, it also requires technology, management, and talent. If conditions are not sufficient, it will take time to create conditions.
In general, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the proportion of electricity consumed by the tertiary industry and residents in the eastern region will increase substantially, and the growth rate of electricity consumption will continue to be lower than the national growth rate; the demand for industrial and urbanization construction in the central region and the transportation hub The promotion of logistics will drive the further increase of power demand; the rapid development of resource development and smelting and processing industries in the western region, the period of significant increase in the level of tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption has not come yet, and the characteristics of heavy use of electricity structures will not change, and electricity demand will not change. The growth is relatively fast.
Xue Jing analysis pointed out: "The overall trend of electricity demand in the future is the slowing of the eastern region and the rapid growth in the central and western regions. Among them, the changes in electricity consumption in the eastern region will be the most obvious, and the growth rate of electricity consumption may not be high, but the load difference will increase. The maximum load growth rate is not low, and the power protection task is more severe during the peak period."
Searching for Paths: Increasing Effective Support Capabilities Strategic Winning Points The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is an important strategic opportunity period for China’s economic and social development, and moderately advanced power protection is indispensable. However, the early warning of power shortages in the beginning of the year is not overwhelming. The maximum power shortage is expected to reach 36 million kilowatts this winter and next spring.
How to ensure a balance of power supply and demand? To increase the effective installed capacity, increase the external transportation capacity, and enhance primary energy support capabilities, the coordination and matching of these three elements is of utmost importance.
“At present, our country is in the double-acceleration phase of industrialization and urbanization. The power supply meets the needs of economic and social development and improvement of the people’s living standards. The rate of self-development cannot be too low, and there must be an increase of 8% to 9% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. At an annual rate, about 400 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity will be added each year."
Wang Xinmao told reporters, "Now, China's basic energy is still coal, basic power or coal, in the past two years, the scale of coal-fired power generation should reach 100 million kilowatts a year, and the annual scale of coal power production should be maintained at 60 million kilowatts. In order to adapt to new demands, industry analysts pointed out that by 2015, coal-fired power generation capacity should reach 933 million kilowatts, and large-capacity and high-parameter coal-fired power units must be actively applied and advanced clean coal power generation technologies should be used to achieve sustainable development of coal-fired power. The layout of coal and electricity will be transferred to the west and north, and coal transmission will be carried out simultaneously.
At the same time, nuclear power should continue to be developed on the premise of ensuring safety; the mode of operation of hydropower should be optimized, and 120 million kilowatts of hydropower should be started in five years; focus on solving the problem of salvage, strengthen the construction of grid-connected projects, and effectively develop wind power, with five years of new growth. Installed more than 70 million kilowatts; in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other places, encourage the construction of natural gas power generation, pumping storage and other peaking power, to adapt to the increasing load situation.
Respond to the uneven distribution of energy, ensure the transformation of power supply, increase the long-distance transmission and construction of power grids, increase the capacity of power grid resources, actively develop and apply large-scale energy storage technologies, and rely on modern information, communications, and control technologies to improve the level of intelligence in power grids.
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the power industry should take the courage to adjust and optimize the historical mission of the energy structure and actively participate in the transformation of energy production and utilization methods.
From the perspective of the world's energy development process, after undergoing two revolutions of coal instead of firewood and replacing oil with oil and gas, today, in the new round of energy reform with green and low-carbon technologies as the core, renewable energy and new energy will be The energy consumption structure occupies a more important position. Since most of the new energy is converted into electricity and used, the power industry faces an important strategic opportunity for development. Experts suggest that in the future power development, efforts should be made to increase the original innovation capability and focus on breakthroughs in the key technology and equipment for green energy generation and grid connection.
Wang Xinmao pointed out that “respecting the natural characteristics of renewable energy sources and actively developing renewable energy sources are the direction of energy development in the future. At the same time, we must pay attention to coal power development to maintain a certain installed capacity and reduce the proportion of coal-fired power in total installed power. "The rhythm." Xue Jing emphasized that we must effectively connect new energy exploration with the information society and smart grid construction, and enable China to lead the world in terms of technology and energy utilization in this round of economic and social development. In the next 10 years, during the completion of China's industrialization phase, electricity should assume the responsibility of the pilot.
In the winter season, Datang International Beijing Gaojing Thermal Power Plant enters the season of "heat-setting electricity." On December 14, the computer in the main control room of the Beijing Gaojing Thermal Power Plant showed that the hot water with a water temperature of 109 degrees Celsius and a flow rate of 9,700 tons per hour was being imported into Beijing Thermal Power Network, warming 12 million square kilometers of the area, and 6 sets of power plants of 100,000 kilowatts. Cogeneration units were all started, and 430,000 kilowatts of electricity resources were integrated into the power grid to serve the economy and protect people's livelihood.
In the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, the entire electric power industry and more than two million electric power people adhered to their responsibilities for a hundred years of inheritance, and they wholeheartedly met the economic and social development, and the people’s production and living needs for electricity.
In the beginning of the year, some changes in the supply and demand situation of the power industry have left a mark for judging the trend of electricity demand during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. In response to this, the supply distribution should closely follow the demand profile and set the tone.
The beginning of the year: the three major veins outline the context of supply and demand, and the overall power demand shows a steady decline.
Compared to the growth rate of electricity that exceeded 20% and sometimes fell below 10% in 2010, power consumption fell from overheating to a steady and reasonable trajectory this year. In the first three quarters, electricity consumption increased by 12.7%, 11.7%, and 11.5% respectively.
Based on the macroeconomic situation of annual GDP growth of “super nines,†it is predicted that the electricity consumption of the entire society will reach 4.7 trillion kWh this year, an increase of 12% year-on-year.
“This year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society has achieved a quarterly equilibrium and stable state, and it has steadily declined to a reasonable growth rate that is compatible with the development stage. This is the first feature that has emerged since 2007. Entering the 12th Five-Year Economic Transformation During the process, the growth of electricity demand will inevitably continue to slow down,†said Xue Jing, director of the Statistical Department of the China Telecom Union, in an interview with the reporter.
At the same time, due to factors such as industrial transfer and macro-control, the regional development characteristics of “East-West and West-Express†this year directly led to a slowdown in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the east and a quarter-to-quarter increase in electricity consumption in the west.
In context two, local power shortages persist frequently.
This year, tight supply and demand not only peaked in summer. In January, the maximum power gap in the operating area of ​​the State Grid reached 27,160,000 kilowatts. Since then, the “off-season is not thin†and the peak summer has been reached, and the war has continued throughout the year. The lack of electricity is not only in the traditional areas, but also in the coal-producing provinces such as Guizhou and Shanxi.
The peak of electricity shortage reached 30 million kilowatts in the whole year. There was a shortage of electricity, there was a catalysis of the surge in electricity consumption in high energy-consuming industries, and there was a disruption in the drop in hydropower output. However, the increase in coal prices, lack of coal and shutdown, and unbalanced matching of power grids were the shortages of electricity. deeper reason.
This year, due to soaring coal prices and restrictions on transportation channels, the production and operation of thermal power were unsustainable. In October, the coal shortage capacity of the country was as high as 16 million kilowatts.
In an interview with the reporter, Wang Xinmao, Senior Consultant of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, pointed out: “The coal and electricity price formation and transmission mechanism has caused a lot of problems. The coal and electricity situation has been deteriorating. In the near term, it is a problem of coal and electricity business losses. It is a problem of deterioration of the investment environment for coal and electricity and is a major issue for the healthy development of the power industry.†Context 3: The capacity for new power protection continues to shrink. "The newly added power guarantee capability not only includes new installed capacity, but also includes long-distance transmission of increased power supply capacity. At present, there is no support for these two aspects." Xue Jing said.
In the first 10 months of this year, China’s electric power capacity under construction was 184 million kilowatts, of which 67 million kilowatts were thermal power, which was equivalent to only two-thirds of last year. The newly started power projects totaled 31.77 million kilowatts, of which new capacity for thermal power generation was only 14 million kilowatts, a 50% decrease from the previous year.
In the case of a serious shortage of new installed capacity, the lack of matching power grid transmission capacity further exacerbated the insufficiency of guarantee capacity.
Faced with this situation, considering the power supply and power grid construction cycle, it is necessary to make such ideological preparations. In the past two years, the overall supply-demand tone of tightly-balanced and locally severe power shortages cannot be changed.
Predictive demand: overall slowdown in growth rate in different regions The Wang Deming, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that China's economy has sustained high growth for 30 years, and future growth of 8% to 9% should be the norm.
During the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, as economic growth gradually slows down, power consumption will generally decline, but there will also be a small annual wave momentum due to the economic cycle. By 2015, China’s electricity consumption growth rate will be 7%. Left and right, the average annual growth rate of the '12th Five-Year' period is between 8.5% and 9%, said Xue Jing.
In the next few years, with the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the enhancement of energy conservation and emission reduction, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries will inevitably accelerate, and the extensive expansion of production capacity in high-energy-consuming and highly-polluting industries will be controlled, and the proportion of industrial electricity consumption will increase from the current 73.7. % dropped two percentage points.
At the same time, with the acceleration of the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way, the universal service of electricity will increase steadily, and the per capita electricity consumption will increase with the continuous improvement of the level of economic development and the increase in the income of residents. According to 2015, the added value of the service industry and the value-added of strategic emerging industries accounted for 47% and 8% of the GDP respectively, the potential for new electricity consumption growth is still great. Clean energy and new energy are rapidly developing, and most of them are converted into electricity to be used. The ideal space for a new round of electricity demand should be released. Of course, various constraints will become the bottleneck for the release of electricity demand.
Considering that China is in the mid-stage of industrialization, the National Energy Administration analyzed and predicted that by 2015, the entire society will use 6.27 trillion kWh of electricity.
During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the development characteristics of the "East-West and West-Express" region will become more apparent.
Liu Yong, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that from the point of view of industrialization maturity, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the development of the eastern industrial economy tends to be saturated, and urbanization is in the late period of rapid growth. The main battlefield of China's industry in the 12th Five-Year Plan will be the Midwest and the North.
Looking at the banks of the Huangpu River, hundreds of “Yueyi Building†(a high-rise building, five or six thousand people, with a monthly tax payment of 100 million yuan) are notes on the economic transformation and development of Shanghai. At present, Shanghai's service industry contributes 60% to economic growth.
Looking back at this year's Western Fair, modern services, high-tech, and equipment manufacturing have become the most popular investment areas, and the signal of “industry westward†has become increasingly clear.
Wang Xinmao analysis pointed out that from the perspective of regional development differences, industries with higher energy consumption will shift to the central and western regions.
However, in the second industry, the absolute value of the east is still relatively large. In terms of growth rate, the western region itself has developed rapidly, and in addition to undertaking high-energy-consuming industries, the amount of electricity used by the secondary industry will increase. However, in the next few years, this change will be gradual. Industrial transfer depends on whether conditions are met. In addition to resources, it also requires technology, management, and talent. If conditions are not sufficient, it will take time to create conditions.
In general, during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the proportion of electricity consumed by the tertiary industry and residents in the eastern region will increase substantially, and the growth rate of electricity consumption will continue to be lower than the national growth rate; the demand for industrial and urbanization construction in the central region and the transportation hub The promotion of logistics will drive the further increase of power demand; the rapid development of resource development and smelting and processing industries in the western region, the period of significant increase in the level of tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption has not come yet, and the characteristics of heavy use of electricity structures will not change, and electricity demand will not change. The growth is relatively fast.
Xue Jing analysis pointed out: "The overall trend of electricity demand in the future is the slowing of the eastern region and the rapid growth in the central and western regions. Among them, the changes in electricity consumption in the eastern region will be the most obvious, and the growth rate of electricity consumption may not be high, but the load difference will increase. The maximum load growth rate is not low, and the power protection task is more severe during the peak period."
Searching for Paths: Increasing Effective Support Capabilities Strategic Winning Points The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is an important strategic opportunity period for China’s economic and social development, and moderately advanced power protection is indispensable. However, the early warning of power shortages in the beginning of the year is not overwhelming. The maximum power shortage is expected to reach 36 million kilowatts this winter and next spring.
How to ensure a balance of power supply and demand? To increase the effective installed capacity, increase the external transportation capacity, and enhance primary energy support capabilities, the coordination and matching of these three elements is of utmost importance.
“At present, our country is in the double-acceleration phase of industrialization and urbanization. The power supply meets the needs of economic and social development and improvement of the people’s living standards. The rate of self-development cannot be too low, and there must be an increase of 8% to 9% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. At an annual rate, about 400 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity will be added each year."
Wang Xinmao told reporters, "Now, China's basic energy is still coal, basic power or coal, in the past two years, the scale of coal-fired power generation should reach 100 million kilowatts a year, and the annual scale of coal power production should be maintained at 60 million kilowatts. In order to adapt to new demands, industry analysts pointed out that by 2015, coal-fired power generation capacity should reach 933 million kilowatts, and large-capacity and high-parameter coal-fired power units must be actively applied and advanced clean coal power generation technologies should be used to achieve sustainable development of coal-fired power. The layout of coal and electricity will be transferred to the west and north, and coal transmission will be carried out simultaneously.
At the same time, nuclear power should continue to be developed on the premise of ensuring safety; the mode of operation of hydropower should be optimized, and 120 million kilowatts of hydropower should be started in five years; focus on solving the problem of salvage, strengthen the construction of grid-connected projects, and effectively develop wind power, with five years of new growth. Installed more than 70 million kilowatts; in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other places, encourage the construction of natural gas power generation, pumping storage and other peaking power, to adapt to the increasing load situation.
Respond to the uneven distribution of energy, ensure the transformation of power supply, increase the long-distance transmission and construction of power grids, increase the capacity of power grid resources, actively develop and apply large-scale energy storage technologies, and rely on modern information, communications, and control technologies to improve the level of intelligence in power grids.
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the power industry should take the courage to adjust and optimize the historical mission of the energy structure and actively participate in the transformation of energy production and utilization methods.
From the perspective of the world's energy development process, after undergoing two revolutions of coal instead of firewood and replacing oil with oil and gas, today, in the new round of energy reform with green and low-carbon technologies as the core, renewable energy and new energy will be The energy consumption structure occupies a more important position. Since most of the new energy is converted into electricity and used, the power industry faces an important strategic opportunity for development. Experts suggest that in the future power development, efforts should be made to increase the original innovation capability and focus on breakthroughs in the key technology and equipment for green energy generation and grid connection.
Wang Xinmao pointed out that “respecting the natural characteristics of renewable energy sources and actively developing renewable energy sources are the direction of energy development in the future. At the same time, we must pay attention to coal power development to maintain a certain installed capacity and reduce the proportion of coal-fired power in total installed power. "The rhythm." Xue Jing emphasized that we must effectively connect new energy exploration with the information society and smart grid construction, and enable China to lead the world in terms of technology and energy utilization in this round of economic and social development. In the next 10 years, during the completion of China's industrialization phase, electricity should assume the responsibility of the pilot.
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