Today's LEDs, like the auto industry of the year, will also have an "unlimited" market.
The "LED Industry Development Analysis" (hereinafter referred to as "Analysis") of Zhiyuan Investment said that through industrialization, the annual output of LED will reach 100 billion. According to research firm Strategy Unlimited, LED lighting will reach a market value of $5 billion in 2012. At the same time, the report predicts that LED lighting will be able to successfully pick up LEDTV in 2012, which will be a key year for LED lighting development.
The LED industry is clearly a crazy cake. In the face of such a market, how much can Chinese companies share?
Investment expectations continue to rise
"In 2010, the scale of substrate production can't be bigger, and it will explode again." Zhang Xiaofei, CEO of Gaogong LED, said that a total of 12 projects were launched last year, and the speed in the first quarter of this year has not slowed down.
“There are more than 29 million sapphire substrates. The epitaxial production was 200 last year, and this year’s plan is 250.â€
Zhang Xiaofei predicted that the sum of investment last year and this year will have exceeded the global demand. “I think that after the third quarter of this year, the production capacity will definitely exceed the global demand,†he said.
But this is undoubtedly the gospel for most Chinese companies. Most LED companies in China are mainly applied. The surge in saturated production capacity upstream will give the downstream more say.
"We must resolutely ask the upstream price and transfer more costs to the upstream to consume." Zhang Xiaofei said. Because the downstream profits are not high.
The surge in production capacity is due to the constant stimulation of the market. According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Center, about 222,000 street lamps have been installed in the 21 pilot cities of “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Cities†in 2009, and it is expected to reach 1.12 million baht by 2011. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of street lamps in the country is about 90 million. If calculated according to 5,000 yuan per street lamp, the entire market size is about 450 billion yuan.
In 2009, the global LED lighting market has an output value of about 2.4 billion US dollars and a penetration rate of only 3.3% (the market share is the proportion of LEDs in the entire lighting market relative to traditional lighting). The proportion of LED lighting in the global general lighting market is expected to rise to 50% in 2015 and 80% in 2020.
It is based on the general positive judgment of the market that the merger and investment of the entire LED industry is also extremely fierce.
In February 2011, China Securities Journal reported that industry association statistics show that in 2009 LED industry announced an investment plan of 22 billion yuan. LED investment has obvious signs of warming. In 2010, only the listed company's LED investment plan exceeded 30 billion yuan. Among them, only Sanan Optoelectronics plans to invest 20 billion yuan. Dehao Runda announced that it has invested 4.1 billion yuan in LED.
Zhejiang Sunshine's 2010 annual report stated that the total investment in LEDs in the next three years will be 1 billion yuan. "I estimate that 1 billion may have been completed in one year. Now one or two hundred million investments in the market are embarrassed to speak." Zhang Xiaofei said.
"Analysis" said that LED lighting has begun to fertilize in 2010. Compared with 2009, the market demand has increased greatly. Enterprises that do LED packaging and LED display screens have also entered the field of LED lighting. At present, the number of companies that only do LED packaging in the Chinese market is very small, and most of the packaging companies have begun to develop and produce LED lighting products.
Relative to the household market, commercial space lighting is undoubtedly easier for LED companies to enter in terms of price acceptance. Increasingly stringent energy conservation and emission reduction requirements will increase the proportion of LEDs used in commercial space.
LEDinside estimates that 2010 to 2011 will be the two years of rapid growth and popularity of LED commercial lighting, and the adoption of LED in home lighting will have to wait until 2011, 2012, especially 2012 is a key year.
Compared to incandescent lamps, LEDs can achieve 95% energy savings. Incandescent lamps have the lowest luminous efficiency, while tungsten halogen lamps are similar. At present, countries around the world have successively launched the roadmap for the elimination of incandescent lamps.
The main production links of LED are divided into raw materials, epitaxy and chip, packaging, assembly and application.
The current industrial structure is basically dominated by the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, the Southeast Region, and the Northern Region. Each region has basically formed a relatively complete industrial chain.
The degree of industrialization in the South is relatively high. The Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta are the regions with the highest development and the highest industrial density in China. They have concentrated more than 80% of the relevant enterprises in the country, and the industrial chain is relatively complete.
"The current industry scale exceeds 20 billion, and the number of enterprises is about 4,000." Yan Jun, deputy secretary general of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, said: "In addition to the traditional Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the LED industry is accelerating development. Accelerate deployment, such as the Delta Triangle and cities in the northwest of Xi'an and Chengdu."
The impact of upstream chip manufacturers on the entire industry chain is not that great. The chip's profit is the highest.
Manufacturers capable of producing substrates and epitaxial wafers in China include Jingneng Optoelectronics, Tianfu Thermal Power, and Sanan Optoelectronics. However, most of the substrates and epitaxial wafers in the domestic market still rely on foreign-funded enterprises or Taiwan-funded enterprises.
Chip production mainly includes Sanan Optoelectronics, Silan Micro, Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Dalian Lumei. At the same time, domestic chip manufacturers are mainly concentrated on small power chips.
The leader in the packaging industry includes Dalian Road Name, Qinshang Optoelectronics, and Furi Electronics.
In the entire industry chain, if the profits are divided into proportions, the packaging industry can get about 20%, while chip manufacturing can share 70% of the profits, and the lowest profit is assembly. And this is precisely the most prosperous link in China's current development.
The current chip market is dominated by several global giants: Nichia, Cree, and Philips. There are also some companies that make chips in China, but almost all application manufacturers have said that they are still "not at ease" for domestic technology, and almost all chips are imported.
In mainland China, the number of upstream manufacturers accounts for a small proportion, accounting for only about 3%. The long-term supply of chip products has been in short supply, and the situation of backlog of packaging manufacturers has always existed.
Qi Jun believes that compared with several major manufacturers around the world, there are problems with the repeated construction of enterprises in China. Although the localization rate of the chip has increased very fast, it still occupies the low-end market.
Compared with the manufacture and production of chips, the packaging of the middle reaches is the biggest link in China's investment in recent years. The key equipment MOCVD machine involved is a must for the business. The global MOCVD machine is almost monopolized by two companies, AIXTRON of Germany and VEECO of the United States. The enthusiasm of Chinese companies for investment makes the two companies make big profits. In 2010, VEECO launched the K465I in the Chinese market, with a revenue increase of 230%.
“In general, local governments subsidize about half the cost of purchasing MOCVD machines (about 1.5 million).†Industry insiders told reporters. This is one of the reasons why MOCVD machines have been heavily invested in recent years.
In terms of output, China's LED packaging has accounted for 70% of the world's total, and has a very high market share in the middle and low-end devices.
"MOCVD subsidies will not stop," Zhang Xiaofei told reporters: "The development zones of local governments are not clear, but they must be concealed and must be supplemented."
The packaging industry quickly started with government subsidies, and the next assembly process seems to be simpler, because it is almost a “human-intensive†industry.
“I didn’t think about setting up a factory to do assembly before I went to Shenzhen. I just wanted to be an application company, but I changed my mind after seeing some packaging factories and lighting factories last year.†Wang Hongsheng, general manager of Leguang Hengxiang (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. told reporter.
When the reporter asked, what kind of threshold is needed for assembly, Wang Hongsheng smiled and asked the reporter: "How high is the threshold for assembling a computer in Zhongguancun?"
It is precisely because of its low technical threshold that the assembly process has become the best and fastest digestion part of the Chinese market.
“Assembly is the least technical, and there is still about 40% of the profit. It is worth doing in the startup market.†Wang Hongsheng explained his business logic to the reporter.
There is no doubt about the fierce competition in the assembly process. In fact, there are more than 2,000 companies in China that are doing indoor commercial lighting applications. Zhang Xiaofei believes that such competition is already very intense.
In the view of the army, the current LED industry faces several major shortcomings, namely, the small scale of the enterprise, the low degree of industrial concentration, and the repeated construction of the locality. At the same time, the public R&D platform is absent, and the equipment technology needs to be broken.
Industry standard missing
The current LED industry is faltering under the foreign patent system and intellectual property protection policy, and patent breakout may be one of the important directions of the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€. For example, silicon substrate technology with independent intellectual property rights in China seems to be a new path for patent breakthrough.
Qi Jun believes: "In the eleventh five-year period, silicon substrate technology has made great progress, and silicon substrates are now also an important research direction in foreign countries."
At the same time, Qi Jun said that the current application for intellectual property and patents is increasing rapidly, especially in the packaging and application. The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†applied for more than 1,000 patents, more than 400 new patents and invention patents, and more than 40 international patents. Both quantity and quality are improving.
Hua Shuming, director of the Beijing Electro-optical Research Institute, believes that “the future development principle of LED is energy-saving and has an alternative value.†For example, the color rendering of tungsten halogen lamps is very high, while the LEDs show a slight loss in color rendering. Thus, the replacement of LEDs for tungsten halogen lamps is relatively small.
Although the technology can be regarded as a serious injury to a certain extent, the lack of LED industry standards is regarded by the industry as another big problem.
“A lot of specifications are difficult to determine. Because there are many power specifications for LEDs,†Hua Shuming said: “The luminous flux of traditional incandescent lamps is basically constant under certain power conditions. But LEDs have developed rapidly in recent years, 70 lumens in 2009. / watts can be, but this year did not reach 100 lumens / watt, do not want to get the project.
In the case of ever-increasing light efficiency, power cannot be specified singly. He said that users use luminous flux, not power. Therefore, the current specifications are divided by optical parameters, and companies are encouraged to continuously improve their technology.
"So the future standard must be based on luminous flux," Hua Shuming said.
Qi Jun believes that "LED applications should be said to have standards, national standards, standards and local standards have promoted the development of the industry." But lighting design does not define which kind of light source must be used, so in performance and safety There are some shortcomings.
Special lighting market breakout
Obviously, to counter the existing energy-saving lamps on the market, and even T5, T8 and other products, the price of LEDs seems to be insufficient.
"It is very dangerous to fight on the downlights and bulbs now," Zhang Xiaofei said. If you compare prices and technology, it seems that Chinese companies hold more disadvantages.
Experts suggest that companies that focus on the general lighting market can enter the field of special lighting, and must pay attention to market segments. At the 2011 Beijing Lighting Exhibition, the reporter also noticed the entertainment lighting and sports lighting special. The China Hotel Procurement Association is a group visit and shows great interest in exhibiting products and lighting solutions.
Many exhibitors told reporters that the current customer choice for products is mainly focused on products. On the one hand, high prices are barriers, but more importantly, customers do not have enough knowledge of LED products, and generally say “do not dare to useâ€.
It will take time to form a sense of market identity, but for companies that have entered the industry, the pulse of competition can be seized. At the 2011 Beijing Lighting Exhibition Forum, Zhang Xiaofei asked companies to ask themselves whether they have enough funds, whether they have their own channels, and whether they have their own brands.
Qi Jun also said that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the focus of local government work may be to clear the merger and reorganization of the upstream and downstream, because "the top ten companies in China do not have a Taiwanese company." It may be a good time for Chinese companies to create their own brands.
Zhang Xiaofei also suggested that companies should not only focus on alternatives, but also find entry points from technological innovation. Such as the new architectural lighting field.
In the process of promoting the development of the industrial chain, subsidies may still be one of the important means. Hua Shuming revealed that the next step will be to appropriately promote subsidies in the indoor direction, such as the replacement of downlights and spotlights. And "the energy saving effect of street lamps and tunnel lights is not obvious, and the cost performance is not high enough."
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